| The year of adjustments |
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Before writing this editorial, I re-read the one published in December 2007. It's interesting to note how that moment heralded what was to come, however timidly. It was the end of a surprising year. An optimistic forecast of around 30 IPOs would materialize into an unbelievable 64 IPOs. It was the time for companies to hurry up and go public before the market's window of opportunity closed, and also for individual investors to seek out the stock market, eager to duplicate the fabulous gains flaunted by their colleagues over drinks at the bar. To more cautious observers, it was obvious that such eccentricity would need to be corrected. No sooner said than done. 2008 turned out to be a long, hard-to-swallow Ash Wednesday after the festivities that preceded it. Starting with the international scenario. The appetite for risk, reflected in an ample concession of credit to subprime payers, proved excessive and irresponsible. It caused extensive damage to the asset portfolios of century-old financial institutions, spread throughout the U.S. economy and emerging markets, and brought the extravaganza of growth and low interest rates to a screeching halt. Securitizations, in vogue for their risk-sharing and excellent returns, revealed their other, less-than-charming side. Experience showed that disseminating risks is not just a way to minimize them, but also a way to amplify the scope of contagion if all goes awry, as indeed it did. In Brazil, instead of the 64 IPOs of 2007, in 2008 there were only four, accompanied by eight subsequent offerings (follow-ons). Companies that rushed to the trading floor to take advantage of the market's good moment exposed their governance faults. Internal controls left something to be desired. Transparency was lacking. BDR issuances by essentially domestic companies proved problematic, for they subjected investors to the poor governance structures provided for in the flexible law of the Bermudas. Excessively active sectors, such as realty, fell flat on their faces. Reckless construction companies went shopping for land and, today, they no longer find a market for their large amount of planned launches. Corporate structure solutions created in the eagerness to implement an IPO had to be revised. The poison pills created to push away undesirable partners are now excessive and inconvenient, for they also repel welcome buyers in necessary consolidation processes. And what about those financial revenue lines in the balance sheets, that had been fattening up companies' profits with derivative operations that bet on a stable dollar? Yes, well, to everyone's surprise, the dollar became unstable and those flashy financial lines morphed into million-dollar losses. All these governance and risk management failures are now being corrected by force. And thus, with one adjustment after the other, 2008 comes to an end. To those who have had it with bad news, we wish renewed energy to face the adjustments that are yet to come and to find the opportunities that come hand-in-hand with all crises. To all our readers, happy holidays and a fruitful 2009! |